Parsons, Kansas —
Beef production for 2012 decreased by a projected 1.1 percent compared to 2011 with a 3.3 percent decrease in slaughter partially offset by a 2.3 percent increase in carcass weights. In 2013, mostly steady carcass weights and a five percent or more decrease in cattle slaughter is expected to result in a 4.8 percent decrease in beef production. This would be the second largest year over year decrease in 35 years, second only to the 6.4 percent decrease in 2004. The 2013 decrease is expected to be followed by a 2014 decrease of 4.5 percent or more. These two years would represent the largest percentage decrease since the late 1970s.
The impact on consumption, however, does not always match the change in production. Domestic per capita consumption will depend on production levels but must be adjusted for beef imports and exports. In 2013, per capita beef consumption is expected to drop 3.5 percent, less than the production decrease because beef imports will increase and beef exports will decrease. The decrease in per capita beef consumption in 2013 will be similar to the year over year decrease in 2011 compared to 2010. In 2011, domestic per capita beef consumption decreased 3.8 percent due to a sharp increase in beef exports despite a minimal decrease in beef production. Though 2004 had a sharper production decrease, per capita beef consumption that year increased nearly two percent due to the sharp drop in beef exports following the first BSE case in the U.S. Beef consumption may drop more sharply in 2014 with a five percent decrease in per capita consumption compared to the lower 2013 level.
These decreases in beef production and consumption almost certainly imply higher wholesale and retail beef prices. However, several other factors will impact the price response to lower supplies. Clearly, the sluggish macroeconomic recovery continues to limit beef demand. Choice boxed beef has been trapped in a narrow range between $193 and $198/cwt. for the past three months. Retail beef prices were flat to slightly lower through much of 2012 but did jump sharply in November. In 2011, a similar decrease in beef consumption resulted in a 15 percent increase in boxed beef prices and a nearly 10 percent increase in retail prices. Total meat consumption decreased about two percent in 2011 and a similar 2.1 percent decrease is expected in 2013 with both pork and broiler consumption expected to be down roughly 1.5 percent each. The pressure for higher boxed beef prices will increase significantly with an expected 4.5 percent decrease in beef production in the first quarter of 2013. Choice boxed beef should move above $200/cwt. in the next few weeks. Beyond that, it will be a question of how much and how fast retailers can pass along the higher wholesale prices to consumers. It is not really a question of whether retail prices will go up but rather a question of how much and how fast. Beef demand remains the biggest unknown in the beef industry and will just how severe the squeeze will be on industry margins in 2013. £
Livestock
2013 Beef production and consumption
- Livestock
-
-
Producers should be aware of cattle heat stress
Old Man Winter held on longer than usual this year, but now summertime temperatures are taking hold, providing ample reason for cattle producers to guard against heat stress in their herds.
-
Early summer deworming of nursing calves
Five deworming trials were conducted at the Eastern Research Station located near Haskell, Okla., during the 1990’s. Crossbred cows and their Charolais sired calves were sorted by sex of calf, calf age and cow age, then randomly allotted to one of four treatments.
-
Raising backyard chickens requires basic knowledge
Interest in keeping chickens in the backyard as a source of eggs and meat is on the rise among both urban and suburban dwellers according to Jess Lyons, a small flock specialist with University of Missouri Extension.
-
Cow slaughter continues above last year
Total beef production for the year to date is down 1.3 percent and total slaughter is down 2.1 percent compared to the same period last year. Both beef production and slaughter have been larger in recent weeks and the year to date total is down less than expected. A significant part of larger than expected total slaughter is the result of increased cow slaughter.
-
Short-term calf removal
Short-term calf removal is the term that describes the temporary physical separation of the calf from its mother. This removes the nursing stimulus from the cow for about two days.
-
Kan. beef cattle numbers lowest since 1999
The number of beef cattle on Kansas feedlots is at its lowest point in 14 years, thanks to an ongoing drought, and industry officials said some producers could find themselves out of business if this year continues the dry pattern.
-
First green grass doesn’t meet cattle’s nutrient needs
Turning cow herds out to graze pastures at the first sign of green grass harms forage growth later in the season. But there’s another big reason to wait, says a University of Missouri beef nutritionist.
Cows don’t benefit from early grazing as much as most herd owners believe. -
Breeding soundness of bulls should involve Trich test
One of the most important factors in determining the profitability of a beef herd is the number of calves weaned per cow exposed.
-
K-State livestock program equips youth with swine ownership skills
Agriculture needs young people — they are the future of food production and their creativity and enthusiasm for agriculture will set the stage for addressing the trials of this century.
-
Temperament plays key role in cattle health
U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) and university scientists have found that cattle temperament influences how animals should be handled, how they perform and how they respond to disease.
- More Livestock Headlines
-
Producers should be aware of cattle heat stress
